Sports and Web3 2024 Predictions Review

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Before we get into things… check out our latest report on Nike’s Web3 journey in collaboration with the Naked Collector. 👉️ Download here! 👈️ 

Happy holidays!

For those of you who subscribed to Sporting Crypto in 2024, I penned a piece at the beginning of the year that reviewed my 2023 predictions, and it went down well with our readers!

I’m doing the same this year. I made 7 predictions at the start of the year that I will now analyse and rank out of 10!

You can read the predictions piece here. 

1) Rights Holders Struggle with High Minimum Guarantees – 7.5/10

What we wrote:

“I don’t see a lot of sports brands getting the high MGs their commercial directors want from Web3 companies in the future. There will still be expensive sponsorships, and there will still be collaborative efforts to create propositions. But the era of really high minimum guarantees in sports and Web3 is gone, in my opinion.”

What happened:

Many rights holders have struggled to get the money they thought was on offer for Web3 deals. Many, have also had to go back to the negotiating table with existing partners to ensure that revenue expectations are in line with market conditions. And some, like DraftKings Reignmakers, reneged on these deals completely citing legal concerns. That being said, we have still seen some huge sponsorship deals that no doubt have huge minimum guarantees included. That in itself probably stops this getting a higher mark!

2) Partnership Failures due to Price Points and ‘Fan Market Fit’ – 10/10

What we wrote:

“I think 2024 will see many Web3 Sports partnerships fail because they’re simply too expensive for the consumer. The crypto market might be coming back, but retail consumers do not, for obvious reasons, want to spend ludicrous amounts of money on digital content. They want to play, experiment, feel and touch what this thing is. They don’t want to go from zero to a hundred — an obvious failing for many of these projects in retrospect.”

What happened:

This was a prediction that I was pretty confident in. When you look at Nike pivoting away completely from Web3, DraftKings announcing the closure of their NFT Fantasy product Reignmakers — and then outside of sports Starbucks closing their Web3 loyalty product Odyssey — there were certainly many ‘high profile’ partnership failures in 2024.

This is for a variety of reasons. Some, like DraftKings, claimed regulatory pressures as the reason for the closure of their Web3 arm. But they had also built their product on Polygon, who saw many brands and projects leave their network. Nike on the other side, albeit also building on Polygon, clearly had macro headwinds to fight — which were insurmountable. However, The overarching point is that many of these products have failed to find critical mass or make enough revenue, which is why, regardless of the macro environment, turbulence at the network level or any other factors.

3) Web3 Sports Sponsorships 8/10

What we wrote:

“I think 2024 will see crypto sports partnerships hit the levels we saw at the last peak of the bull market in 2021. Perhaps not quite to the level of an FTX acquiring the naming rights of the Miami Heat stadium for 19 years, but close enough. It seems as though the worst of the macro headwinds economically are over, and with crypto flourishing in a high-interest, quasi-recession/recession market, I think there will be some mouthwatering amounts of money tied up in sponsorship deals in 2024.”

What happened:

You could mark this prediction down due to the volume of deals not being as high as that of 2021 and 2022, but in terms of the profile of deals, there have been some huge ones in 2024 — and that’s why I’m giving this an 8/10.

Crypto[dot]com partnered with the UEFA Champions League, The Crypto[dot]com Showdown (LIV Golf vs. PGA TOUR), extended as F1’s exclusive crypto partners to 2030 — and many more. Kraken, another crypto exchange, entered the market by partnering with Williams Racing, Tottenham Football Club, Red Bull Leipzig and Atletico De Madrid. A higher mark could have been hit here if we saw a bigger volume of deals, but crypto companies have begun to prioritise quality over quantity.

4) Free-to-mint and cheap products dominate the Sports Web3 market 6/10

What we wrote:

“Even though we are beginning to see green shoots in the broader crypto market, I strongly believe that sports brands will lean heavily into the free or cheap models that have seen success in 2023. The likes of McLaren Racing, Manchester United and Reddit’s partnership with the Super Bowl drive very strong levels of engagement amongst sports fans. Although the revenue isn’t huge (yet), the ability to showcase innovation as a brand, engage millions of fans and execute something novel — creates KPIs away from revenue that define success. In 2024, I expect to see more of this – whether it’s from sponsored activations or self-funded ones, the idea that we see the casual fan spend thousands of dollars on digital content is not realistic.”

What happened:

This is something I thought would continue through 2024 as a big opportunity for fan engagement but did not happen at the frequency that I anticipated. The best examples of this included McLaren’s Race Rewind campaign and MOMENTUM by the ATP Tour in 2024. For this to get a higher mark, I would have needed to have seen more campaigns like this at a grander scale — but that did not come to fruition.

5) Broadcasters/Streaming Companies Venture into Web3 Rights: 0/10

What we wrote:

“Probably the most out there and likely incorrect prediction, but ever since I wrote about TNT's successful Watch-to-Earn trivia game, I’ve felt that this market is ripe for broadcasters to leverage in a way that boosts engagement. My prediction is that free/cheap digital assets will be what dominates this intersection. Therefore, one must look at who has the funds to leverage ‘Web3 rights’ to yield non-direct revenues in the form of product sales (Amazon, Apple, Etc.) or subscriptions (Netflix, Disney etc.).”

What happened:

Pretty much nothing happened… this was an out-there prediction which (predictably) fell on its face. The Watch-to-Earn trivia game by TNT was seemingly the first and only we’ve of its type, and there hasn’t been anything like it since.

6) Web3 gaming builds on momentum 9/10 

What we wrote:

“In 2024, I expect Web3 Gaming to hit heights we haven’t seen, and perhaps in ways we don’t know yet. For sports, we already know this will have a huge impact because Gaming itself has such a big impact on sports and vice versa. These worlds will continue to collide, and I predict we will see several NFL-Rivals-esque success stories.”

What happened:

Blockchain gaming doubled in Daily Unique Active Wallets (DAUWs) in 2024. The impact on sports has been notable, with NFL Rivals seeing great success this year having over 6 million downloads and almost $10m in sales, as well as announcing a FIFA equivalent soccer game would launch in 2025. Lionel Messi backed Matchday topped Apple app store rankings in some gaming sub-categories and Sorare saw a consolidation in sales volumes. So far, Web3 gaming has mirrored licensee-licensor relationships that we have seen in traditional gaming, which is likely to continue in the short term. However, we did also see the likes of Manchester United launch a Web3 fantasy game, following the likes of Ligue 1 in France creating their own game.

7) Real-World-Assets go from strength-to-strength 9/10

What we wrote:

“The generic idea here is that real-world assets can benefit from being on a blockchain. This will become a monstrous market in 2024, and I think that sports memorabilia is going to be a big part of it.

There are two angles to this:

1. Secondary market trading of memorabilia and sporting items

2. Direct-to-consumer products that are sold as NFTs but are physically backed

There are many reasons why the blockchain is an effective distributed database, but perhaps the greatest advantage it gives you in this scenario is the proof-of-authenticity and fraud controls. Add that to near the instantaneous settlement of assets, funds and contracts — you have a huge advantage in markets where efficiency can disrupt”

What happened:

On the real-world collectibles side of things, Courtyard.io had a huge 2024 — going from ~$54k in monthly sales volume in Jan 2024 to $7-8m by the end of the year. They verify physical assets like sports cards and put them on chain. Outside of that, we also saw the first sports team sell a portion of the equity in a tokenised manner, with Watford FC doing this via Republic’s platform.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Crypto[dot]cpm and Formula 1 extend partnership through to 2030 (Read more here)

• Cristiano Ronaldo and Binance team up to launch football skills collectibles (Read more here)

• Red Bull Arena becomes Sports Illustrated Stadium in 13-year naming rights deal with SI Tickets (Read more here)

• PSG and Matchain launch the ‘Joint Innovation Studio’ (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Blockchain Gaming Alliance launch 2024 State of industry Report (Read more here)

• Tether Takes $775M Stake in Video-Sharing Platform Rumble (Read more here)

• Aptos Labs CEO Mo Shaikh Quits; Avery Ching to Take His Place (Read more here)

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