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Polymarket to Raise at $1bn Valuation
The crypto-powered prediction market are raising $200m at a $1bn valuation.
Pet Berisha
July 07, 2025
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Polymarket Raise at $1bn Valuation
Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:
Polymarket’s Raise 📊
The Rise of Polymarket in Sport 🏅
Analysis & Concluding Thoughts 🧠
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Polymarket's Raise 📊
Polymarket is “nearing“ a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, valuing the platform at $1 billion. Polymarket considered raising $50m in September 2024, alongside the launch of a native token, but have seemingly decided to go the traditional route.
This comes hot off the heels of the crypto-powered prediction markets signing a deal with Elon Musk's xAI company, becoming the official prediction market partner for xAI and X. Moreover, competitors Kalshi have recently raised $185m at a $2b valuation, signalling a broader trend of excitement surrounding prediction markets.
Polymarket have $15bn in cumulative volume in the last 12 months, much of that attributed to the U.S. presidential election in Q4 2024.
The Rise of Polymarket in Sport 🏅
As we can see from the chart below, the monthly volume shows that the U.S presidential election had a huge impact on Polymarket, with ~$7bn worth of volume coming in October, November and December 2024 combined.
Since then, Polymarket has pivoted aggressively towards sports as its primary growth driver — but even before then, sports was increasing in popularity.
As per a Reddit user analysis in November 2024, 50.9% of event contracts were sports events at that point.
And when looking at volumes, in November 2024, sports already accounted for 17% of Polymarket’s volumes, the 3rd biggest market behind Crypto and U.S. Current Affairs, respectively.
Fast forward to February 2025, and Sports became Polymarket’s biggest category, just 4 months after the analysis above.
At that point, lifetime volume from sports-related contracts on Polymarket passed $6 billion, largely driven by the $1.1 billion wagered on the 2025 Superbowl.
So right now, we can safely say Polymarket’s biggest business is sports. There are not many headlines about this, and it’s underdiscussed.
Analysis 🧠
Many will have read this piece and rightfully asked the question:
“Is this just gambling?”
Yes and no.
And there’s added nuance because, lawfully, it depends on where you’re located.
For example, France, the U.K., the U.S. and many other territories have outright banned Polymarket.
If Polymarket were regulated in those territories, it would likely be regulated like a traditional peer-to-peer exchange, as a gambling entity in France and the U.K. But in the U.S., it would fall under the CFTC’s remit.
That’s because the U.S. would look holistically at Polymarket as an ‘enabler’ of ‘betting’ lines rather than the creator of them. i.e. — they are enabling people to bet one way or another on an outcome, but are not setting the line like a traditional bookmaker. We are presuming this due to Kalshi’s CFTC regulation and their wins in court against state regulators.
The ‘Is this gambling?’ question is like Schrödinger's cat or the observer effect.
It’s both gambling and it’s not… until it’s regulated in a specific region where the participant is located. Crypto adds complexity… because it’s global.
So, depending on which country, and even sometimes which state in the U.S., you’re looking at this diagram from, it would morph depending on your local regulations.
What is clear, however, is that sports have quickly become a big part of Polymarket.
Perhaps so quickly that many have failed to pay attention to it.
Prediction markets are here to stay, and it’s now a question of how much fo the gambling market they will engulf.
Concluding Thoughts 💭
(1) Offshore vs Onshore
Like with crypto exchanges in the past (think Binance vs Coinbase), there is the battle of onshore vs. offshore. Polymarket are offshore, and Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto[dot]com are the onshore competitors who are ensuring they are properly regulated every step of the way (for the most part).
This gives Polymarket an edge short term in terms of growth and volumes, but long term, their lack of compliance in major territories will likely catch up with them.
(2) Regulatory scrutiny & arbitrage
On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Coplan's home and seized his phone. This was alongside the DOJ investigating Polymarket for allegedly allowing U.S.-based gamblers to wager.
Polymarket are right ‘on the edge’ when it comes to the grey areas within this space.
(3) Despite this, Polymarket is now Mainstream
Despite the regulatory concerns, Polymarket have become mainstream and are only going to become more so. They have begun marketing harder in the sports world and will be embedded into X at some point soon.
Despite the volumes still a way off from the highs of the U.S. election in Q4 2024, the concerted effort in sport, and the X partnership should see Polymarket hit those heights agian in the next 12 months.
(4) Prediction markets have another edge other than regulatory arbitrage
They can create liquid, high-volume markets in areas where bookmakers do not have an edge.
I.E, a player transferring from one football club to another, a bookmaker cannot take huge liabilities on because they have no edge, or no historical data to model against. It’s an event, just like an election, that people have a good idea about, but accurate forecasting is almost impossible.
(5) Another killer crypto use case
This is not what Robinhood is doing, because they are using Kalshi. But it’s still important to outline answers to ‘why crypto?’.
Crypto is important here because you can use smart contracts to automatically payout on predictions.
You can share in liquidity globally in permitted jurisdictions.
Settlement and payment are faster, cheaper, transparent and borderless.
It makes sense that crypto rails have caught on with prediction markets.
This is the second mainstream use case for crypto after stablecoins.
(6) Predictions markets are real competitors to traditional betting exchanges
If we consider that, according to Global Sports Insights, in 2023, $261 billion was ‘handled’ (wagered) globally — and the fact that Betfair Exchange process £77bn (~$100bn) of matched volume per year alone, the volumes we’re seeing in sports from Polymarket are significant.
(7) Finance cares about prediction markets. So will everyone else. Sports included.
There is a demand for prediction markets. Consumers have spoken with their activity.
Media is using prediction markets to point to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ probabilities in sports, politics and more.
Indeed, even institutions who were asked in a recent survey by Paradigm voted Predictions Markets as 4th in ‘strategies that your organization implemented to manage or reduce costs in delivering financial services’.
The genie is out of the bottle, and it’s not incumbent on regulators to ensure consumers can participate safely.
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