Polymarket become X (Twitter) Prediction Market Partner

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Polymarket's Partnership with X 📊

X, formerly Twitter, announced on Friday that it has partnered with Polymarket, naming it the platform’s official prediction market partner. Launched in 2020, and gaining mainstream attention in June 2024, Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Fittingly for this newsletter, sports has become their biggest market.

The press release announced that the two businesses will partner to “launch an integrated product to deliver data-driven insights and recommendations to Polymarket”.

Additionally - Polymarket Predictions “will be combined with 𝕏 data to provide live insights, incorporating real-time annotations explaining market moves directly from Grok and relevant 𝕏 posts.”

What I’m translating this press release into, at its core, is embedded prediction markets into X.

X users won’t place bets directly in-app (yet), and until then, they’ll see Polymarket’s live data.

As well summarised by Signull on X, right now, it is the platform where real-time information is breaking and being curated more than anywhere else.

The State of Prediction Markets in 2025 🔮

Although Polymarket launched in 2020, it only gained product market fit and traction in June 2024.

Since then, the numbers are truly staggering.

There has been over $14bn trading volume on Polymarket in the last 12 months - between June 2024 and June 2025.

If we consider that, according to Global Sports Insights, in 2023, $261 billion was ‘handled’ (wagered) globally — and the fact that Betfair Exchange process £77bn (~$100bn) of matched volume per year alone, this is significant. Polymarket still have a long way to go, but what is clear, however, is that they are a disruptor and they are here to stay.

Since October 2024, Polymarket have seen between ~200,000 and ~500,00 monthly active traders.

Volumes and users peaked during the U.S. Presidential elections, and that has been synonymous with Polymarket, the brand. The election generated over $3.7bn in volume, but since then, sports-related contract volume has surpassed $6bn, making it their biggest market.

This explosive growth has come against a backdrop of regulatory warfare in the U.S., and Polymarket are no stranger to this, paying a $1.4m civil penalty in January 2022, alongside a cease and desist order against any activities in the country.

In November 2024, the FBI raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s home to investigate whether or not Polymarket had been complying with that cease and desist order, following the incredible volumes seen on the U.S. presidential election.

In Europe, France and Belgium have both blocked access to Polymarket.

They are not the only ones who are part of this war, however. Their competitors Kalshi, Robinhood (via Kalshi’s offering) and Crypto[dot]com have all been in the headlines.

This week alone:

Crypto[dot]com are suing the Nevada Gaming Control Board for blocking their events contract product.

AND

Kalshi just won in court against the District of Nevada

From a regulatory perspective, prediction markets are nationally regulated in the U.S. by the CFTC, but gambling is regulated at the state level.

The regulatory dispute centres on a fundamental question:

What constitutes sports betting versus financial prediction markets? 

Gambling regulators, mindful of their tax revenue, say both instances are sports betting, a business that requires a license from the state to operate. "The purchase of the contract is indistinguishable from the act of placing a sports wager," the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission wrote in a cease-and-desist letter sent to Kalshi.

Kalshi’s position is that CFTC regulation supersedes state gambling laws, creating a federal pathway for nationwide sports prediction markets.

Seven states have sent cease-and-desist letters to the company in recent months, alleging that its activities violate state law. In response, Kalshi has taken three state regulators to court, arguing that the company does not fall under their jurisdiction. So far, they are winning that battle.

Analysis & Concluding Thoughts 🧠

There is so much to unpack here, so let’s break this down.

(1) This is a watershed moment.

Whatever you think about X (formerly Twitter), it is still a huge platform with a massive user base.

They are also trying to integrate payments, embedded into the platforms.

If you add prediction markets embedded, you can see where this is going.

• Information & Content (Tweets)

• Reliability & Accuracy (Polymarket)

• The ability to wager on that information (Embedded in X)

This is a crypto business (without a token) that has found product-market fit and is now becoming a huge part of one of the biggest social platforms in the world.

(2) Why is crypto so powerful here?

This is not what Robinhood is doing, because they are using Kalshi. But it’s still important to outline answers to ‘why crypto?’.

Crypto is important here because you can use smart contracts to automatically payout on predictions.

You can share liquidity globally in permitted jurisdictions.

Settlement and payment are faster, cheaper, transparent and borderless.

It makes sense that crypto rails have caught on with prediction markets.

(3) Sports has entered the chat.

Sports and gambling have been tied at the hip for decades.

Sports and prediction markets will be tied for decades to come, as shown by how popular sports predictions are on Polymarket.

Almost every sports media platform with a mature tech stack that I know is talking about prediction markets.

It’s not “Do we look at this?” or even “Do we integrate?” — it’s: “How?” and “When does the regulation allow us?”

(4) Is this gambling rebranded?

Yes and no.

And there’s added nuance → it depends on where you’re located.

For example, France, the U.K., the U.S. and many other territories have outright banned Polymarket.

If Polymarket were regulated in those territories, it would likely be regulated like a traditional peer-to-peer exchange, as a gambling entity in France and the U.K. But in the U.S., it would fall under the CFTC’s remit.

That’s because the U.S. would look holistically at Polymarket as an ‘enabler’ of ‘betting’ lines rather than the creator of them. i.e. — they are enabling people to bet one way or another on an outcome, but are not setting the line like a traditional bookmaker.

The ‘Is this gambling?’ question is like Schrödinger's cat or the observer effect.

It’s both gambling and it’s not… until it’s regulated in a specific region where the participant is located. Crypto adds complexity… because it’s global.

This diagram is an attempt at trying to bucket different products into different categories, but again, this would look totally different depending on the jurisdiction you choose.

Right now, it feels like the most important party in this equation is the CFTC… the ball is in their court, and the direction they go with eventual, formal legislation will be important.

(5) What can prediction markets do that bookmakers cannot?

They can create liquid, high-volume markets in areas where bookmakers do not have an edge.

I.E, a player transferring from one football club to another, a bookmaker cannot take huge liabilities on because they have no edge, or no historical data to model against. It’s an event, just like an election, that people have a good idea about, but accurate forecasting is almost impossible.

(6) Finance cares about prediction markets. So will everyone else. Sports included.

There is a demand for prediction markets. Consumers have spoken with their activity.

Media is using prediction markets to point to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ probabilities in sports, politics and more.

Indeed, even institutions who were asked in a recent survey by Paradigm voted Predictions Markets as 4th in ‘strategies that your organization implemented to manage or reduce costs in delivering financial services’.

The genie is out of the bottle, and it’s not incumbent on regulators to ensure consumers can participate safely.

Final thoughts 🧠 

Because this is Elon Musk’s X, and there are certain priors that will be taken into much of the analysis when anything partners, or launches on X.

But this is a huge deal, and I think it’s being overlooked just how incredible it is that a crypto-based business is going to be integrated into a platform with 500m+ monthly active users. Polymarket have just plugged in to a platform with a userbase 20,000 times bigger than the size of their own.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Crypto [Dot] Com sues Nevada gaming body over block on sports event contracts (Read more here)

• FIFA Rivals brings sports brand Adidas into its universe with in-game content (Read more here)

• Sports brawler game Sparkball is now coming to Somnia (Read more here)

• OKX and Blockworks Research release "The Future of Blockchain Applications” Report (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Stablecoin Issuer Circle IPO Soars (Read more here)

• UK Regulator FCA to Lift Ban on Crypto ETNs for Retail Investors (Read more here)

• Uber Is Once Again Considering Crypto Payments (Read more here)

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