Kalshi Approach $1bn Weekly Volume, Plans Onchain

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Kalshi’s Big Week 📊 

Prediction market Kalshi has recorded its best-ever week in trading volume over the past 7 days.

Volumes have exploded since the launch of the American Football season this year, and are up from ~$20m weekly to $870m+ Year-to-date (YTD).

In that time period, the onshore US-based prediction market have also ‘flipped’ market leader Polymarket in weekly volume, with the onchain prediction market seeing volumes at 50% of Kalshi. Of course, Polymarket is not legal (yet) in the US and many other territories, whereas Kalshi is only operational in the US.

Unsurprisingly, transaction data follows a similar pattern.

Kalshi’s weekly transaction volume has increased from ~140,000 to over 2 million, which is a staggering increase.

Why has this happened?

The simple answer is: Sports.

Kalshi’s volumes, since February, have been predominantly from sports trading (or wagering, whatever vernacular you choose).

Below, we can see the ‘daily’ percentage of the market that sports captures by volume (orange).

The explosion began in February 2025, coinciding with the Super Bowl, and has not let up ever since.

Indeed, aggregating for a weekly view, you can see that in the past 5 weeks, Kalshi’s volumes have skewed 80%+ in sports.

To summarise:

• Kalshi have flipped market leader Polymarket in volume

• Their volumes are dominated by Sports

• Their weekly trading volumes have hit close to $1bn

Analysis + The Landscape ⚖️ 

This has been, and will continue to be, a battle between:

1) an onshore, offchain operator (Kalshi)
AND
2) an offshore, onchain operator (Polymarket)

But Kalshi also have plans to go international, if reporting from Bloomberg about Robinhood wanting to expand their Kalshi-powered prediction markets globally is to be believed.

And Polymarket’s relaunch in the US is seemingly imminent.

The battle to be the world’s dominant prediction market is well and truly underway.

I liken this to what we saw with crypto in Coinbase Vs. Binance, from 2017 to present. Of course, both have differentiated their product sets to the point that they are different markets they thrive in, albeit still being competitive.

Speaking of product sets, Kalshi gave us a glimpse into where they are heading by relaunching parlays (accumulators if you’re British).

A parlay is traditionally where a bettor can predict the outcome of multiple results in one wager, giving them bigger potential winnings.

The volumes are very small to begin with, per Dustin Gouker from the Event Horizon Newsletter:

“The amount of activity on parlays was still relatively small, at about $650,000 in trading volume. (There was $122 million total traded at Kalshi on Thursday.) The actual retail activity in that number is likely relatively small by comparison, if we’re to understand large market makers as taking the other side of parlays in most cases.”

The thing about parlays is that, unlike a ‘contract swap’ on a prediction market, you need someone to go against all of your parlay picks, at the volume you need, to place the parlay. This is a product that I think anyone in prediction markets has grossly underestimated the complexity of. This is a gambling product that is designed by centralised sportsbooks to create a big margin for themselves, at the fantasy of winning big. A lottery ticket, for analogy’s sake.

On a prediction market, this is obviously trickier as you need someone else on the other side of your prediction. And the more predictions you make in the same ‘parlay’, the less likely it is for someone to be on the other end of that. This is one of the most profitable products in sports betting, which is super difficult to replicate with a peer-to-peer order book style prediction market.

How and if this market grows for Kalshi is to be determined. What is certain, however, is that they are doubling down on sports predictions, and the market is noticing.

DraftKings took a huge haircut in markets in their last earnings call.

A small hit, or a sign of things to come…?

But at the same time:

• Robinhood want to expand prediction markets globally

• Fanduel and CME want to launch a prediction market that Fanduel claims will not be competitive with their sportsbook offering

• There are 100s of people building verticalised/ niche offerings, and I’m being inundated with introductions/inbound in this space

All the while, the trump card for Polymarket have is a potential token.

How this would work within their marketplace is an unknown, but it would likely be a big competitive advantage if they can create a tokenomic model that incentivises users to trade on their prediction market.

And… at the same time, Kalshi’s new head of crypto John Wang says the company’s next inflection point is… with crypto.

Wang recently said that they Kalshi will be on "every large crypto application and exchange within the next 12 months”.

Additionally, he said: "This next phase of Kalshi's growth, which is about building an ecosystem of new financial primitives and trading front-ends on top of Kalshi, will be a 10x unlock for us"

Kalshi have already hinted that part of their future strategy will be onchain, recently partnering with Solana and Base to launch its ecosystem support network with dedicated grants for offchain and onchain innovators.

How exactly Kalshi would plug into these crypto products, and what the business model would look like there, remains to be seen. Some of these crypto products additionally, are in the business of making markets. Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, etc. — have all built much more sophisticated financial products than Kalshi. Do they need that help?

It’s a game of poker between the two prediction market giants, who have both looked to take on fresh capital at huge valuations of late, to go into full land grab mode.

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) This is a new product category

There has been a lot of ‘is this gambling’ conversation, and I think it’s probably disingenuous to go either way at this point. Right now, yes, this looks and quacks like a duck — but if you cannot see the difference between traditional sports betting and what is happening here, then you need to recalibrate.

This is a financial primitive that has just so happened to find product market fit in betting on sports and political outcomes.

What comes next is not going to look like sports betting.

They will look like financial markets, for the better or worse, with a simplified front end.

For example, Polymarket having a token, offering interest on open positions, leverage, and collateralising predictions — it might feel like gambling — but I think it’s naive to think this is all it is.

(2) Execution is key in a level playing field

There is soon going to be a level playing field in this market.

Polymarket will relaunch in the US.

Kalshi will go international.

(3) Expect a drop in Kalshi volumes in the US

Right now, this is a dream for Kalshi. They have no competitors for the lofty volumes they see in the US, but Polymarket's launch in the US will change that, for certain.

(4) But also expect a drop in Polymarket’s volumes outside the US

Simultaneously, Kalshi will expand globally, and blockchain may just help them do that. That will reduce the monopoly that Kalshi has in territories where they are live.

(5) Robinhood are the first, but is it the last?

Kalshi currently power Robinhood’s prediction markets, and it is already a multi-hundred-million-dollar business for the tech giant. Vlad Tenev recently said that “Looks like Robinhood is the Robinhood of prediction markets, who knew?”

Some have viewed this as tension between the businesses, and also questioned whether Robinhood could be competitive with Kalshi in the long term, should they choose to build out their own market rather than whitelabel. But simultaneously, Kalshi actively want distribution into products that have large consumer bases with avid spending capabilities. That line of tension is difficult to find.

(6) It’s easy to say these are the winners

It’s very easy to say that the winners are Polymarket and Kalshi. That is true, for now. But there are again lessons to be taken from crypto. Binance and Coinbase were dominant, but Hyperliquid came along and dominated perpetual futures markets.

Indeed, one could point at a product like that and say they could compete with prediction market products in the future. That is certainly where I would be looking, if I were them.

(7) Future players will verticalise

And like Hyperliquid, competing on ‘everything’ with Polymarket and Kalshi is not a route to success in the short to medium term. Verticalisation and finding niches are far more likely to yield success.

(8) Wake up, sports, you have a new partner

The sports business has a new partner in town.

It’s called prediction markets.

I say partner in terms of commercial opportunities, naturally, like sponsorship and partnership, but also in terms of consumption.

Seeing and quantifying the odds of drama in a game, live, or in highlights packages, is a shift for consumers. Seeing live what the market thinks about the likelihood of a draft pick order, or a transfer of one player to another, are also markets that were previously more unsophisticated.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Tixbase and Avalanche Bring Secure, Digital-First Ticketing to Copa América de Béisbol 2025 (Read more here)

• Nevada judge that ruled for Kalshi rules against Crypto[dot]com (Read more here)

• TON Foundation and SCOR Introduce Web3 Sports Stickers (Read more here)

• How a former adidas leader is changing how sports fans are seen (Read more here)

• Kalshi and Pro Padel League Partner (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Gunz blockchain surpasses 70,000 DAUWs following Off The Grid’s mainnet migration (Read more here)

• Coinbase Applies for US Banking License, Joining Growing Pack of Crypto Firms (Read more here)

• Bored Ape NFTs Are Not Securities, Court Rules in Landmark Decision (Read more here)

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