Fanatics Launch Prediction Market

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Fanatics Markets Launches 📊 

Fanatics have launched a standalone prediction market app in partnership with Crypto[dot]com, becoming the first major sportsbook operator to enter the rapidly expanding prediction markets space.

The app launched in 10 US states initially with plans to go further, and supplements the 22 states where Fanatics Sportsbook is live, after launching that product in 2023.

The launch comes as prediction markets have captured significant mindshare across both crypto and iGaming industries throughout 2025, with weekly trading volumes now touching billions of dollars.

Sports have emerged as the dominant category, with Kalshi posting weekly notional trading volumes exceeding $1 billion in sports alone in late October, which has seen exponenetial growth since April 2025.

Fanatics have beaten both FanDuel and DraftKings to the punch in terms of launching a prediction market, and have even beaten Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S.

Led by Matt King, former CEO of FanDuel who now oversees betting and gaming for Fanatics, the new platform offers trading on live games, major league matchups, economic indicators, and elections in Phase One. Phase Two, launching early next year, will expand into crypto, stocks/IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech/AI, movies, and music.

In an interview with Fast Company, he said:

"Prediction markets are one of the top things that fans want to do these days. People want to be able to express their opinions on not just sports, but entertainment, culture, and everything under the sun."

The partnership structure sees Fanatics design the user experience whilst Crypto[dot]com's CFTC-registered derivatives exchange provides the infrastructure that powers the underlying market and pricing.

Fanatics acquired Paragon Global Markets LLC in July 2025 in the run-up to this launch. Paragon is federally registered as an introducing broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

These two, in tandem, gave Fanatics the grounding to build Fanatics Market.

Crucially, the launch gives Fanatics a foothold in huge markets within the United States.

As per Dustin Gouker from the Event Horizon Newsletter:

“The most strategically significant aspect of the launch is access to Florida, a massive market that has legal sports betting but only as a monopoly via Hard Rock Bet. Because of the Seminole Tribe's compact with the state, other operators cannot serve Florida through traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets, classified as derivatives rather than gambling, offer a potential workaround to this monopoly—though it remains to be seen whether Hard Rock and the Seminole Tribe will challenge this interpretation."

There also seems intent to unify the experience across all of the company’s digital products. Fanatics plans to integrate Fanatics Markets with their Fanatics ONE rewards programme in the coming months. Users will earn rewards points through trading activity and unlock exclusive benefits, including merchandise drops and tickets to Fanatics Fest, the company's annual New York City event, which has become something of the Comic-Con of sports.

Analysis 🧠

Fanatics' entry into prediction markets follows an established pattern for the organisation: move quickly into emerging spaces.

The company were an early investor in Candy Digital during the NFT boom, only to divest 18 months afterwards when CEO Michael Rubin concluded that "NFTs are not a business." That capital and attention quickly redirected towards gambling, with their sportsbook launching in late 2023. This redirection was noted by Rubin when they decided to divest from Candy Digital, who have since gone on to be acquired by the recently shuttered Futureverse.

Rubin saw the tea leaves and read them correctly, but I doubt he would have seen just how quickly prediction markets have disrupted the iGaming market in the United States.

They are, however, the first movers here — which is still pretty impressive.

Fanatics Sportsbook generated $300 million in revenue in 2024, but their market share remains in the single digits—approximately 5%—whilst FanDuel and DraftKings together control roughly 80% of the US sports betting market. Prediction markets offer Fanatics an opportunity to establish market position in a category where dominant players have not yet cemented their advantages.

However, King is acutely aware of the risks that come with rapid market expansion and heavy capital deployment. Speaking with Sportico, he explained Fanatics' approach:

"Anytime there's a market that is this big that opens up, there's going to be lots of capital that flows into it, and wherever there's lots of capital, there will be a reasonably high level of stupidity that occurs. Frankly, we're just preparing for the stupid. The benefit we have is we're a private business that's focused on how we win over a 10-year period, not our next fundraise. We'll strike the right balance of still being aggressive and making the most of being early in the market, but we're going to avoid stupid. It's a lot easier to do that once you've seen a rodeo."

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) The Competition Heats Up

The competition is heating up. We're seeing this from players across finance, gambling, and crypto take prediction markets seriously. We recently saw that Robinhood are looking at going direct to consumer and protecting the current moat they have in prediction markets. They have acquired an exchange, which some people are speculating reduces the need for their partnership with Kalshi. At the same time, Kalshi have partnered with huge media conglomerates such as CNBC, and Polymarket are relaunching in the United States. All the while, FanDuel, DraftKings, CME, and many others are waiting in the wings to launch prediction market products. It's very frothy, and the competition is fierce. Owning that direct consumer relationship is going to be more important than ever as the competition becomes stiffer. I think Fanatics have actually got a decent chance at growing a pretty substantial amount of volume via this product. If you think that only $300 million of their total several billion in revenue in 2024 came from iGaming, then you think this is their biggest growth market, and prediction markets could be bucketed in. Of course, they haven't used the word ‘gambling’ in any of the press releases, but this is the market they’re going after with this launch.

(2) The Florida Wedge

Whilst there is a lot of ‘innovation ‘ in this market and this design space, which is pretty fascinating to me, I do think a lot of the reasoning here is regulatory arbitrage. Florida is a state that has almost as many people as England, and that is a huge market when it comes to gambling.

(3) B2B2C

The most interesting part of this is the battle that Crypto[dot]com, Kalshi, and Polymarket are currently fighting to become the pipes for these markets. That B2B2C market is also seeing heavy competition. Crypto[dot]com are probably in the lead, with Fanatics and Underdog being huge wins for them. It will be very interesting to see how ingrained they can become in these partnerships and products to avoid the Kalshi and Robinhood example from happening again.

(4) Avoiding Stupid

The "avoiding stupid" quote is super interesting by Matt King, and I tend to agree with him in the sense that there is just so much froth in this market right now. I really feel that the companies that act quickly, safely, and avoid doing dumb things whilst trying to own the consumer wedge will do the best here. There are many launching products here and just expecting volume will appear. This will not be the case.

(5) Sports Gambling in Everything but Name

Right now, this looks and feels like sports gambling. If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, it is most probably a duck. The volumes reflect that, and so do the companies that are getting into this space: FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics. What are these businesses? They are either sportsbooks or businesses that have a growing sportsbook business. So it's very difficult for anyone to sit there and say this isn't sports gambling right now.

(6) But the Potential is Much Bigger Here

Of course, I've already outlined why I think the potential for this market is much bigger. The information that you can get from these markets, with the accuracy that they portray, is so valuable. Nobody should forget that these markets have greater accuracy than JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs analysts; that is the reshaping and commoditisation of accurate data that impacts economic markets. Do not underestimate how big that is. Sports is the product market fit moment, but this is much bigger than just sports betting.

(7) Do Fanatics Care about That?

Fanatics are a sports fan business: memorabilia, digital products, sportsbook, and now prediction markets—all cater to sports fans. I have a hard time believing that they feel the same way that I do and think this is bigger than sports gambling. I think they are simply trying to corner as much of this market as possible before Polymarket, FanDuel and DraftKings launch.

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