We just published the Predicted Q1 2026 Quarterly Report - covering the state of prediction markets in Q1 2026.

It's part of a newsletter we're launching called Predicted - a prediction-markets publication, which will cover the business of prediction markets. There’s not much nuance between the ‘this is gambling and a scam’ and ‘this is the future of markets’ — so I needed a place to scream into the void.

You can subscribe here 👇

The full report runs 50+ slides and covers volume, users, revenue, M&A, regulation, and the institutional entrants now circling the category.

In this edition of Sporting Crypto, I pull out some of my favourite charts from the report to analyse.

In Q1 2026, prediction markets traded $75.7 billion in notional volume.

That is more than the category traded across the whole of 2025.

Annualised, we could see a 6x YoY increase in yearly notional volume.

Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for 92% of all notional volume in Q1 2026.

Crypto[dot]com, Opinion, Predict.fun, Myriad, Limitless and other smaller players shared the remaining 8%.

The duopoly is real and doesn't look like it's going away.

Sports was the largest single vertical across the quarter. Kalshi, in particular, is dominated by sports wagers. Polymarket led in geopolitics, crypto, and other event markets.

Kalshi alone saw $25bn+ in sports wagers in Q1 2026, which has drawn significant scrutiny from the media, regulators, and more.

Kalshi's revenue is not publicly disclosed.

Applying Kalshi's reported take-rate band of 0.8–1.15% to its $33.1B in Q1 volume gives a revenue range of $265M–$380M, with a midpoint near $331M.

Polymarket switched on its first trading fees on 6 January 2026, starting with the US app and 15-minute crypto markets. As taker fees rolled out across more categories through the quarter, monthly onchain revenue climbed from roughly $3.7M in January to $11.6M in March.

When it comes to onchain prediction markets, Polymarket is winning the user-acquisition race, and it’s not close.

Across Q1, Polymarket captured the majority of new wallets entering onchain prediction markets, outpacing every other onchain venue combined.

Onchain wallets are a noisy metric; bots, market makers, airdrop farmers, and incentive flows distort the numbers. Our datasets excluded accounts that made 1000 or more trades per week, to try to capture retail activity more accurately.

The single most striking data point of the quarter came from Robinhood.

CEO Vlad Tenev called prediction markets "the fastest-growing business in the company's history."

Robinhood traded 12 billion+ prediction-market contracts across the full year 2025.

Through February of Q1 2026, the company had already traded 4 billion+ contracts. It also acquired MIAXdx in January to list its own proprietary event contracts.

Robinhood was not alone. Fanatics launched a standalone prediction-market app across 24 states. DraftKings integrated event contracts into its core sportsbook and is targeting all 50. Goldman Sachs met multiple platforms in early 2026. Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan "may one day" run prediction markets, with guardrails.

$1.725 billion was raised across 16 disclosed rounds in Q1.

That's the largest capital quarter the category has ever seen. Kalshi closed a $1B Series E led by Coatue. Polymarket took $600M from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange.

To read the full report — download here!

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