Today we launched the State of Prediction Markets Q3 2026 report over on Predicted, our prediction market newsletter. It's 115 pages and it's free.
Some headline numbers from the report 👇
💳 According to data from American Spend, the 11 states without legal sports betting are home to a third of US adults, but accounted for 55% of Kalshi's card deposits in September 2026.
🎓 In card spending observed in American Spend's data, 18 to 24 year olds account for 30% of Kalshi's card deposits, about twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel.
📈 Kalshi and Polymarket US now take 11% of card deposits against betting apps in the US in total, up from 3% in Q1 2026, according to data from American Spend.
🗺️ Kalshi's share of US prediction-market search demand rose from 23% to 34% in one quarter, with gains in all 50 states, according to Blask.
📊 $194.1Bn in notional volume, the biggest quarter ever and up 75% on Q2.
🇺🇸 US-regulated exchanges took 89% of notional volume, up from 69% in Q2.
🎯 Parlays (44%) overtook sports single events (39%) as the biggest share of US notional volume.
Or see some of our favourite slides below 👇
Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:
1) More than half of Kalshi's card money comes from states with no legal sports betting 💳
2) Americans now search for Polymarket and Kalshi more than any betting brand 🔍
3) Prediction markets just had a $194.1 billion quarter 📊
4) Nine in every ten dollars now trade on US-regulated exchanges 🇺🇸
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01 - More than half of Kalshi's card money comes from states with no legal sports betting 💳
According to data from American Spend, the 11 states without legal sports betting accounted for 55% of Kalshi's card deposits in September 2026. Those 11 states are home to a third of US adults.
Source: American Spend, US Census Bureau
In card spending observed in American Spend's data, 18 to 24 year olds account for 30% of Kalshi's card deposits, about twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Source: American Spend
And Kalshi and Polymarket US now take 11% of card deposits into the eight apps we track, up from 3% in Q1 2026.
Source: American Spend
The eight apps are Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Hard Rock Bet, Fanatics and PrizePicks.
Disc: Petrit Berisha, editor of Predicted and Sporting Crypto, is an investor in American Spend.
02 - Americans now search for Polymarket and Kalshi more than any betting brand 🔍
According to search data from Blask, Polymarket and Kalshi each drove more US search demand than any betting brand.
Source: Blask
And Kalshi's share of US prediction-market search demand rose from 23% to 34% QoQ, with gains in all 50 states.
Source: Blask
03 - Prediction markets just had a $194.1 billion quarter 📊
Prediction markets traded $194.1 billion in notional volume in Q3 2026, up 75% from Q2 and the sector's biggest quarter ever.
Source: The Prediction, Artemis
04 - Nine in every ten dollars now trade on US-regulated exchanges 🇺🇸
US-regulated exchanges took 89% of notional volume in Q3 2026, up from 69% in Q2.
And Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for 91% of Q3 notional volume between them.
Source: The Prediction, Artemis
The full report is 115 pages, for free.
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